My Mortgage Blog

Mortgage bond prices rose pushing mortgage interest rates lower. Retail sales figures came in lower than expected with a 0.5% decrease. The Treasury auctions were mixed but didn’t result in much volatility. Inflation generally remained in check as the producer price index fell 0.5%; lower than the expected 0.2% decline. Core consumer prices were slightly higher than expected with a 0.2% increase. Weekly jobless claims were not as bad as expected but continued claims increased which was bond friendly. Significant stock weakness Friday helped mortgage interest rates improve. Rates fell by about 5/8 of a discount point for the week.

The most important data will be the housing starts Tuesday. Weekly jobless claims and leading economic indicators data will also be important. Be cautious in this normally lackluster mid-summer trading environment as stocks remain very volatile and economic conditions remain uncertain.

Housing Starts

Housing starts data is a leading indicator of the state of our economy. This report, provided by the Bureau of the Census, takes into account data from both single-family homes and multi-family dwellings. Building permits are also released with the housing starts data. By knowing the number of permits issued monthly, analysts can attempt to estimate for the upcoming months. Normally, starts are 10% higher than permits since all locations are not required to have a building permit.

Housing starts and permits give a warning of future economic activity. In effect, a rise in housing starts can lead to a fall in the bond market and vice versa. Consumers tend to hold off on the purchase of new homes, new cars, and other big-ticket items if they are worried about the future of the economy. Housing is an important part of our economy. Continued declines in housing starts can lead to continued economic slowdown and essentially a deeper recession. On the other hand, increases in housing starts could signal a possible reversal.

From the opposite perspective, changes in interest rates often lead to changes in housing starts. High interest rates can cause a significant decline in home sales, which can lead to a drop in housing starts. Just the opposite happens when rates drop and is one of the additional reasons the Fed is trying to keep rates low. Low mortgage rates affect both home sales and housing starts.

The housing market across the country is a vital component in sustaining the economy. The continued weakness of the housing market has many worried. Many economists believe housing will continue to suffer.

There is still uncertainty regarding the future state of the economy. The Fed minutes indicate growth expectations are lower. The Fed Chairman has stated that the timing of an economic recovery was "highly uncertain."

Mortgage interest rates are historically low. A cautious approach is wise to protect against future volatility. Rates could head lower but there are no guarantees. We all remember the housing price corrections that came when many people thought prices would only go higher. While rate spikes are not expected any time soon, they are still a lingering possibility.