My Mortgage Blog

Mortgage Talking Points 03-13-2012

March 13th, 2012 10:18 AM by Nick Rapplean

Avid readers of this column, if any exist, will recall that I looked forward last week to watching the effect of the February employment data on the markets. I imagined sitting in a lawn chair, sipping lemonade, reveling in the triumph of jobs in America, the slight northward movements of interest rates, the signs of investors awareness that the American economy is moving toward the light at last.

I offered one caveat. And that caveat is, perhaps sadly, the subject of this weeks

column. I mentioned that an indicator like the monthly employment report will only have a truly strong effect on the markets if it contains the element of surprise. And I acknowledged that investors all over the world were aware enough that the jobs numbers would be good to have eliminated most of the surprise factor. The jobs numbers, if solid, just werent surprising.

So, if Id been watching from my lawn chair, I doubtless would have fallen asleep long before the day was over.

The 8.3% unemployment rate for the second month in a row chilled most of those who were looking for an even better improvement. But wait. Falling to 8.3% the month before this was a rather powerful move. Staying there for a second month is a welcome confirmation of that powerful move. Theres plenty of room for rejoicing here, but the markets werent in the mood for rejoicing. Investors are worried. They are muttering, Greece is going to default, you know! They need Big Proof of a brighter future than theyre expectingbigger numbersif theyre to be coaxed off their frightened positions.

And the new non-farm payroll figures did reach 227,000a sturdy and workable level, though wed love, at this point in the apparent recovery, numbers with a bit more fire. But wait. The first number reported for January was 243,000, but included in this set of numbers was a revision, taking the January new job toll all the way to 284,000. (Does that not qualify as surprising?) And, since Januarys jobs figure rose by 223,000that means we have three months in a row with total new jobs coming in handily above 200,000. And those who do this sort of thing for a living tallied up the consensus estimates of economists before the February numbers were released: The consensus was 204,000 new payroll jobs. Surprise!

In spite of these pleasant rays of sunshine, the mood was pretty lackadaisical. Bloomberg.com wrote: Overall, the latest report shows the labor market gradually improving and providing modest momentum to the consumer sector. Still, growth is not strong enough to make much of a dent in unemployment.

Okay, whatever. I cant help but notice that we have to cross the street before we get to the other side; we dont just wake up one day and were where we want to be. The constant talk about how our jobs situation is terrible next to where it was six years ago has gotten old, frankly.

Yes, were not there yet. But 227,000 is a lot better than 204,000. And 284,000 beats out 243,000 any day of the week.

But as I said, the lesson this time is, once again, that the markets rarely react strongly to good data unless those data come wrapped in a surprise somehow. Its as if investors were sitting in the grandstands yelling, Go ahead, make us move. We dare you.

Well keep watching. Its difficult not to react to good news if it keeps coming.

Posted in:General

Posted by Nick Rapplean on March 13th, 2012 10:18 AM

My Mortgage Blog

Mortgage Talking Points 03-13-2012

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